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novibet deposito minimo

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The main underpinning of poker is math – it is essential. For every decision you make,

while factors such as 🌈 psychology have a part to play, math is the key element.

In this

lesson we’re going to give an overview of 🌈 probability and how it relates to poker. This

will include the probability of being dealt certain hands and how often 🌈 they’re likely

to win. We’ll also cover how to calculating your odds and outs, in addition to

introducing you to 🌈 the concept of pot odds. And finally we’ll take a look at how an

understanding of the math will help 🌈 you to remain emotional stable at the poker table

and why you should focus on decisions, not results.

What is Probability?

Probability 🌈 is

the branch of mathematics that deals with the likelihood that one outcome or another

will occur. For instance, a 🌈 coin flip has two possible outcomes: heads or tails. The

probability that a flipped coin will land heads is 50% 🌈 (one outcome out of the two);

the same goes for tails.

Probability and Cards

When dealing with a deck of cards the

🌈 number of possible outcomes is clearly much greater than the coin example. Each poker

deck has fifty-two cards, each designated 🌈 by one of four suits (clubs, diamonds, hearts

and spades) and one of thirteen ranks (the numbers two through ten, 🌈 Jack, Queen, King,

and Ace). Therefore, the odds of getting any Ace as your first card are 1 in 13 🌈 (7.7%),

while the odds of getting any spade as your first card are 1 in 4 (25%).

Unlike coins,

cards are 🌈 said to have “memory”: every card dealt changes the makeup of the deck. For

example, if you receive an Ace 🌈 as your first card, only three other Aces are left among

the remaining fifty-one cards. Therefore, the odds of receiving 🌈 another Ace are 3 in 51

(5.9%), much less than the odds were before you received the first Ace.

Pre-flop

Probabilities: 🌈 Pocket Pairs

In order to find the odds of getting dealt a pair of Aces,

we multiply the probabilities of receiving 🌈 each card:

(4/52) x (3/51) = (12/2652) =

(1/221) ≈ 0.45%.

To put this in perspective, if you’re playing poker at your 🌈 local

casino and are dealt 30 hands per hour, you can expect to receive pocket Aces an

average of once 🌈 every 7.5 hours.

The odds of receiving any of the thirteen possible

pocket pairs (twos up to Aces) is:

(13/221) = (1/17) 🌈 ≈ 5.9%.

In contrast, you can

expect to receive any pocket pair once every 35 minutes on average.

Pre-Flop

Probabilities: Hand vs. 🌈 Hand

Players don’t play poker in a vacuum; each player’s hand

must measure up against his opponent’s, especially if a player 🌈 goes all-in before the

flop.

Here are some sample probabilities for most pre-flop situations:

Post-Flop

Probabilities: Improving Your Hand

Now let’s look at 🌈 the chances of certain events

occurring when playing certain starting hands. The following table lists some

interesting and valuable hold’em 🌈 math:

Many beginners to poker overvalue certain

starting hands, such as suited cards. As you can see, suited cards don’t make 🌈 flushes

very often. Likewise, pairs only make a set on the flop 12% of the time, which is why

small 🌈 pairs are not always profitable.

PDF Chart

We have created a poker math and

probability PDF chart (link opens in a new 🌈 window) which lists a variety of

probabilities and odds for many of the common events in Texas hold ’em. This 🌈 chart

includes the two tables above in addition to various starting hand probabilities and

common pre-flop match-ups. You’ll need to 🌈 have Adobe Acrobat installed to be able to

view the chart, but this is freely installed on most computers by 🌈 default. We recommend

you print the chart and use it as a source of reference.

Odds and Outs

If you do see 🌈 a

flop, you will also need to know what the odds are of either you or your opponent

improving a 🌈 hand. In poker terminology, an “out” is any card that will improve a

player’s hand after the flop.

One common occurrence 🌈 is when a player holds two suited

cards and two cards of the same suit appear on the flop. The 🌈 player has four cards to a

flush and needs one of the remaining nine cards of that suit to complete 🌈 the hand. In

the case of a “four-flush”, the player has nine “outs” to make his flush.

A useful

shortcut to 🌈 calculating the odds of completing a hand from a number of outs is the

“rule of four and two”. The 🌈 player counts the number of cards that will improve his

hand, and then multiplies that number by four to calculate 🌈 his probability of catching

that card on either the turn or the river. If the player misses his draw on 🌈 the turn,

he multiplies his outs by two to find his probability of filling his hand on the

river.

In the 🌈 example of the four-flush, the player’s probability of filling the flush

is approximately 36% after the flop (9 outs x 🌈 4) and 18% after the turn (9 outs x

2).

Pot Odds

Another important concept in calculating odds and probabilities is pot

🌈 odds. Pot odds are the proportion of the next bet in relation to the size of the

pot.

For instance, if 🌈 the pot isR$90 and the player must call aR$10 bet to continue

playing the hand, he is getting 9 to 🌈 1 (90 to 10) pot odds. If he calls, the new pot is

nowR$100 and hisR$10 call makes up 10% 🌈 of the new pot.

Experienced players compare the

pot odds to the odds of improving their hand. If the pot odds 🌈 are higher than the odds

of improving the hand, the expert player will call the bet; if not, the player 🌈 will

fold. This calculation ties into the concept of expected value, which we will explore

in a later lesson.

Bad Beats

A 🌈 “bad beat” happens when a player completes a hand that

started out with a very low probability of success. Experts 🌈 in probability understand

the idea that, just because an event is highly unlikely, the low likelihood does not

make it 🌈 completely impossible.

A measure of a player’s experience and maturity is how

he handles bad beats. In fact, many experienced poker 🌈 players subscribe to the idea

that bad beats are the reason that many inferior players stay in the game. Bad 🌈 poker

players often mistake their good fortune for skill and continue to make the same

mistakes, which the more capable 🌈 players use against them.

Decisions, Not Results

One

of the most important reasons that novice players should understand how probability

functions at 🌈 the poker table is so that they can make the best decisions during a hand.

While fluctuations in probability (luck) 🌈 will happen from hand to hand, the best poker

players understand that skill, discipline and patience are the keys to 🌈 success at the

tables.

Conclusion

A strong knowledge of poker math and probabilities will help you

adjust your strategies and tactics during 🌈 the game, as well as giving you reasonable

expectations of potential outcomes and the emotional stability to keep playing

intelligent, 🌈 aggressive poker.

Remember that the foundation upon which to build an

imposing knowledge of hold’em starts and ends with the math. 🌈 I’ll end this lesson by

simply saying…. the math is essential.

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